Over the last few days European voters have decided who will represent them in the European Parliament for the next five years. The European Parliament consists of 720 MEPs elected by proportional representation across the 27 member states of the European Union. According to the Associated Press, this year’s European elections have ‘shaken the foundations’ of the European Union. This is due to the fact that the far right has gained a greater share of the vote than in previous elections.
The headlines today have suggested that the far right has dominated the European elections, but in fact its gains have been modest. The centrist parties in the ‘grand coalition’ will be represented by 403 MEPs, a 56% majority, for the next five years. Although the political centre has lost some ground in their year’s elections, it remains the dominant force in the European Parliament.
Changing the Narrative
Christian Schimpf defines protest voting as ‘a process in which specific discontent causes insincere voting.’[1] Essentially, voters cast their vote for a candidate or party they do not really want to win. They do so to prevent the success of a candidate or party a voter thinks is failing or undesirable, or to show general political dissatisfaction. It does not necessarily mean that voters have any strong positive feelings about those they vote for when they are doing so in protest.
As the authors of an article in the Guardian say, European elections are seen as less significant than national elections by many voters. They are used as a low-risk way of showing disapproval of the national government. This is called ‘protest voting’. It is with this in mind that the gains of the far-right must be interpreted.
Exploring the Causes
The BBC’s Europe Editor Katya Adler said, though it may be a ‘less eye-catching’ headline, it is the centre-right, not the far-right, that has had the most success in this election. The far-right has not enjoyed landslide success at these elections. Looking across Europe as a whole, their gains have been relatively small scale. The centrist bloc remains more dominant than almost any parliamentary grouping in any elected assembly in Europe. The far-right has gained the most in countries where disapproval for the national government is highest.
In Germany the far-right AfD came second with 15.9% of the vote compared to Chancellor Gustav Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) who won only 13.9%. However, the Christian Democrats, the opposition party in Germany, won by far the largest share of the vote at around 30%. Scholz’s coalition has come under recurrent criticism since its formation in 2021, overseeing slow economic growth and a number of blunders in its handling of the Ukraine war. His coalition consists of the SPD, Free Democratic Party, and the Greens and is viewed negatively by many people in Germany.
Although the political centre has lost some ground in their year’s elections, it remains the dominant force in the European Parliament.
Perhaps the most dramatic outcome has been in France, where the struggles of the centrist French parties in Europe has led to President Emmanual Macron calling a snap parliamentary election. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party won 31% of the French vote, more than double the share won by Macron’s allies who won around 15%. RN’s success in the European elections comes on the back of seven years of Macron’s administration.
First elected as President in 2017, Macron has faced fierce protest towards his handling of oil and gas prices in the form of the gilets jaune protests, which lasted for nearly four years. His hardline stance to these protests further damaged his reputation, as did his handling of Covid and the cost-of-living crisis. Support for Macron has gradually weakened, with his party losing the 2022 parliamentary elections.
The success of the French hard right in the European elections must be seen as part of dissatisfaction with Macron and the problems both faced and caused by the wider French government in the past seven years. It is part and parcel of democracy that voters eventually seek change no matter who is in government. This is what is currently taking place in France.
The French President’s decision to call a snap election will prove decisive. Voters will either affirm their support for the reigning administration or force a changing of the political guard. Their protest votes in the European elections suggest they seek change.
The Reality of the European Elections
The success of the hard right in France and Germany should be seen as the result of political trends at the national level. In particular, they should be seen as protest votes in elections many Europeans view as insignificant. While these trends always have the potential to effect European politics, in this instance they have had a much more marginal effect than the headlines in the mainstream media indicate. Dissatisfaction with national governments has precipitated a marginal knock to centrist dominance in the European parliament.
Where the far-right has made gains there is growing demand for change. Under normal circumstances this would manifest as changes of government in individual countries. 2024 will see the most elections in a single year in history. This coincidence has led to dissatisfaction with national governments that would normally be contained within the politics of individual nations affecting the result of the Europe-wide elections.
Ultimately, the swing towards the far-right has, in reality, been much smaller than the headlines make it seem. In Austria, for example, the far-right party FPÖ won the biggest share of seats in but it only bested the ruling centre-right People’s Party (OeVP) by less than 1%. The headlines present this as a big ‘win’. It is of course a cause for concern if extreme or otherwise dangerous ideas are growing in popularity in European politics. However, the results of this year’s European elections do not necessarily show that this is the case. Centrism remains dominant and the frustrations that have been caused by national politics are likely to be resolved, to a fair extent, by upcoming national elections.
The Lessons from Europe’s Elections
The key point for those who object to political extremism is, as always, that it can be prevented. It can be prevented by personal action taken to advocate for solutions to problems and forcing elected representatives to implement them by spreading them as far and wide as possible. Protest voting will cease if the mainstream candidates simply do better.
Politicians only adhere to higher standards if they are made to do so by a politically active citizenry and solution-oriented discourse. These are two things that are in our control. If you are voting in an election this year, think about the solutions you have to your country’s problems, rather than focusing on the faults of others’ arguments. Then get involved by publicly talking about possible solutions with others. Above all, vote for who you actually believe will serve your country’s interests the best. Better politics starts with individual action.
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[1] Christian Henning Schimpf, The Micro Logic of Tactical Protest Voting: A Comparative Analysis, (Wiesbaden: Springer, 2021), p.4.